Royal Gazelle – Implementation Optimiza Demand Planner
Royal Gazelle stands for many years of Dutch bikes with high quality. Gazelle was founded by Willem Kölling in 1892. Until then Willem was a postman in Dieren. He ordered one bicycle in the UK and knew immediately that this new type of transportation would be a success. As a result of high demand Willem asked Rudolf Arentsen (who was a blacksmith) to start producing bikes together.
There has been many changes through the years. The business started by selling 3 bikes back in 1892 and has now become a company with a leading position on the Dutch market and presence in a number of exportmarkets such as Belgium, Germany and Denmark.
Every year the assortment of bikes changes. New models and different colours are added to the assortment and models from previous years are discontinued. The existing sales history can not be used as such for the demand forecasting. A new bike and or a new colour does not have any sales history.
The long leadtimes of components, combined with the fact that the production of a certain model changes every year is the main reason for a complex but yet important process of demand planning. The first definitive version of a Demand Plan is already a commitment for a large part of the total yearly volume.
During the collection year there is a clear need to follow up actual sales versus forecast so that necessary changes can be made as early in the process as possible. This reduces the risk of stockouts as well as the risk of excess inventory of discontinued bikes when the collection year has finished.
For Gazelle we configured the Optimiza Demand Planner with a pyramid structure that makes it possible to forecast the demand on an aggregate level. This primary forecast level is the bike model. We then split the forecasted demand to the various bikes within the model. The outcome of this process is a Demand Plan that needs to stay up-to-date continously. This is done via the Optimiza Demand Planner and is based on the infeed of orders from dealers, Point of Sale data and a library of demand profiles from recent collection years.
“To be able to respond to possible changes in expected demand is very important for Gazelle. With Optimiza we are now able to identify changes and convert this into a well-considered Demand Plan” says Gerco Oosterink, Manager Demand & Supply. “We have choosen for the Optimiza Demand Planner to increase our forecast accuracy and subsequently to increase the servicelevel to customers. The servicelevels to customers is the absolute number one priority. During the first months after implementation the forecast accuracy on model level has increased from 60% to more than 70%. Obviously this has also positive effects on inventory levels of finished goods and components.”